Macro Regime
Reflation
Growth is solid but inflation remains elevated or sticky.
Growth
0.15
Risk
56
Inflation
Re-accelerating
Macroeconomics
Macro Overview
Quick read across labor, inflation, risk, housing, growth, policy, yield curve, and financial conditions.
Labor
Tight
Inflation
Re-accelerating
Liquidity
Expanding
Risk Monitor
Yellow
Yield Curve
Normal
Labor Market
UNRATE Apr 2026: 4.3%
Prime-age E/P: 80.7%
Openings / Unemployed
0.9x
Claims trend (13w)
-7.8%
Prime-age E/P YoY
+0.4%
Prime-age 3m ann.
-0.5%
Inflation & Real
CPI YoY: 3.9%
Core PCE YoY: 3.2%
5y Breakeven
2.6%
10y Breakeven
2.4%
5y Real Yield
1.6%
10y Real Yield
2.1%
Net Liquidity
Net Liq: $5.93T
Fed Balance Sheet - TGA - RRP
13w Change
+2.7%
RRP
3.3B
Risk Monitor
Risk Score: 56
Recession prob: 1.8%
10y - 3m
0.89%
10y - 2y
0.49%
VIX
17.4
Housing & Credit
Months' supply: 8.5 months
Mortgage 30y
6.51%
HY OAS pct.
15%
Growth Composite
Growth score: 0.15
NAPM: —
WEI
2.99
INDPRO YoY
1.4%
Retail YoY
4.9%
Policy Stance
FFR: 3.6%
Real FFR: +0.4%
Taylor proxy
6.2%
Policy gap
-2.6%
Real FFR
+0.4%
Yield Curve
10y-3m: 0.89%
10y-2y: 0.49%
10y - 3m
0.89%
10y - 2y
0.49%
Financial Cond.
NFCI: -0.52%
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions
NFCI Score
-0.52%
5y Rank
21%
Methodology
How we assemble the macro overview
Every card is sourced from primary FRED series that we normalize to month-start frequencies and render in the same Plotly theme. Badges use transparent, rule-based thresholds so you can quickly tell whether a complex macro stack is improving or deteriorating.
Key FRED inputs
- Labor inputs — Unemployment rate, job openings, size of the civilian labor force, prime-age employment ratio, and weekly jobless claims.
- Inflation inputs — Headline and core CPI, core PCE, trimmed-mean PCE, median CPI, breakeven inflation expectations, real 5y/10y yields, and the effective fed funds rate.
- Risk inputs — 10-year vs 3-month and 10-year vs 2-year Treasury spreads, Conference Board LEI, state coincident breadth, and initial claims momentum.
- Housing inputs — 30-year mortgage rates, national home price index, wage proxy, high-yield credit spreads, consumer loan delinquencies, months' supply, bank credit, and new home sales.
- Growth inputs — Nonfarm payrolls, real consumption, capacity utilization, ISM manufacturing, industrial production, retail sales, core durable orders, and real GDP.
- Policy inputs — Fed funds rate, core PCE, NAIRU vs unemployment gap, real vs potential GDP, financial conditions index, and the Federal Reserve balance sheet.
- Yield curve inputs — Treasury yields from 1 month through 30 years plus the derived term spreads.
- Financial conditions inputs — Chicago Fed financial conditions index and its five-year percentile.
Regime vocabulary
- Labor (Tight / Loosening / Cooling)
- Score ≥ +1 when unemployment is falling, the openings-to-unemployed ratio stays above 1.2, and claims trend lower; score ≤ −1 when the opposite is true.
- Inflation (Cooling / Sticky / Re-accelerating)
- Short-horizon core PCE is compared with the 12‑month pace as well as trimmed-mean and median gauges.
- Risk (Green / Yellow / Red)
- A z-scored composite of LEI YoY, the 10Y-3M spread, state breadth, and claims momentum is clipped to a 0‑100 scale.
- Housing (Benign / Tightening / Stressed)
- A 60-month z-score of HY OAS, mortgage rates, delinquencies, and months' supply dictates the label.
- Growth (Accelerating / Flat / Slowing)
- Average YoY growth across industrial production, retail sales, core goods orders, and real GDP determines the badge.
- Policy (Easy / Neutral / Tight)
- Policy gap = Fed funds minus a Taylor proxy plus a check on the real FFR; NFCI percentiles label financial conditions (Loose / Neutral / Tight).
- Yield curve (Normal / Flat / Inverted)
- The 10Y-3M spread above 20 bps is Normal, between 0 and 20 bps is Flat, and below 0 bps is Inverted.
Additional context
- Weekly releases (claims, HY OAS, NFCI) update intraday once FRED posts; monthly and quarterly data refresh after the 8:30 a.m. ET prints.
- Sparklines show the most recent 36 months, and percentile ribbons reference rolling five-to-ten-year windows for historical context.