Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 0 | 748.16 | 1.7 | 0.23% | 749.86 | 746.47 | 1.0% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 4 | 748.16 | 4.9 | 0.65% | 753.07 | 743.26 | 9.02% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 5 | 748.16 | 6.08 | 0.81% | 754.24 | 742.09 | 10.07% |
| 05/28/26 (Thu) | 6 | 748.16 | 7.18 | 0.96% | 755.35 | 740.98 | 10.87% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 7 | 748.16 | 8.32 | 1.11% | 756.49 | 739.84 | 11.61% |
| 06/01/26 (Mon) | 10 | 748.16 | 9.47 | 1.27% | 757.64 | 738.69 | 11.14% |
| 06/02/26 (Tue) | 11 | 748.16 | 10.19 | 1.36% | 758.36 | 737.97 | 11.44% |
| 06/03/26 (Wed) | 12 | 748.16 | 11.0 | 1.47% | 759.17 | 737.16 | 11.82% |
| 06/04/26 (Thu) | 13 | 748.16 | 11.75 | 1.57% | 759.92 | 736.41 | 12.13% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 14 | 748.16 | 12.66 | 1.69% | 760.83 | 735.5 | 12.52% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 21 | 748.16 | 16.4 | 2.19% | 764.57 | 731.76 | 13.26% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 27 | 748.16 | 19.49 | 2.61% | 767.66 | 728.67 | 13.64% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 35 | 748.16 | 22.11 | 2.96% | 770.28 | 726.05 | 13.9% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 39 | 748.16 | 23.21 | 3.1% | 771.37 | 724.96 | 13.88% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 41 | 748.16 | 24.37 | 3.26% | 772.53 | 723.8 | 14.18% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 56 | 748.16 | 29.33 | 3.92% | 777.49 | 718.84 | 14.58% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 70 | 748.16 | 33.83 | 4.52% | 782.0 | 714.33 | 15.01% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 91 | 748.16 | 39.65 | 5.3% | 787.82 | 708.51 | 15.42% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 101 | 748.16 | 41.72 | 5.58% | 789.88 | 706.45 | 15.39% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 119 | 748.16 | 46.58 | 6.23% | 794.75 | 701.58 | 15.81% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 131 | 748.16 | 48.79 | 6.52% | 796.96 | 699.37 | 15.91% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 147 | 748.16 | 52.73 | 7.05% | 800.9 | 695.43 | 16.22% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 161 | 748.16 | 56.15 | 7.5% | 804.31 | 692.02 | 16.46% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 182 | 748.16 | 60.99 | 8.15% | 809.16 | 687.17 | 16.78% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 210 | 748.16 | 66.72 | 8.92% | 814.89 | 681.44 | 17.08% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 223 | 748.16 | 68.57 | 9.16% | 816.73 | 679.6 | 17.13% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 238 | 748.16 | 71.69 | 9.58% | 819.85 | 676.48 | 17.31% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 301 | 748.16 | 83.67 | 11.18% | 831.84 | 664.49 | 17.9% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 313 | 748.16 | 85.06 | 11.37% | 833.22 | 663.11 | 17.93% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 391 | 748.16 | 98.45 | 13.16% | 846.61 | 649.72 | 18.48% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 483 | 748.16 | 112.4 | 15.02% | 860.57 | 635.76 | 19.0% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 574 | 748.16 | 123.64 | 16.53% | 871.8 | 624.53 | 19.16% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 609 | 748.16 | 127.35 | 17.02% | 875.51 | 620.82 | 19.21% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 756 | 748.16 | 144.73 | 19.34% | 892.89 | 603.44 | 19.58% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 938 | 748.16 | 164.89 | 22.04% | 913.06 | 583.27 | 19.92% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.