Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/13/26 (Tue) | 3 | 778.42 | 4.02 | 0.52% | 782.44 | 774.4 | 7.16% |
| 10/14/26 (Wed) | 4 | 778.42 | 5.42 | 0.7% | 783.84 | 773.0 | 8.67% |
| 10/15/26 (Thu) | 5 | 778.42 | 6.31 | 0.81% | 784.73 | 772.11 | 9.22% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 6 | 778.42 | 7.2 | 0.92% | 785.62 | 771.22 | 9.67% |
| 10/19/26 (Mon) | 9 | 778.42 | 7.97 | 1.02% | 786.39 | 770.45 | 9.02% |
| 10/20/26 (Tue) | 10 | 778.42 | 8.56 | 1.1% | 786.98 | 769.86 | 9.22% |
| 10/21/26 (Wed) | 11 | 778.42 | 9.21 | 1.18% | 787.63 | 769.21 | 9.5% |
| 10/22/26 (Thu) | 12 | 778.42 | 9.8 | 1.26% | 788.22 | 768.62 | 9.71% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 13 | 778.42 | 10.49 | 1.35% | 788.91 | 767.93 | 9.96% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 20 | 778.42 | 14.59 | 1.87% | 793.01 | 763.83 | 11.31% |
| 11/06/26 (Fri) | 27 | 778.42 | 18.1 | 2.33% | 796.52 | 760.32 | 12.14% |
| 11/13/26 (Fri) | 34 | 778.42 | 20.78 | 2.67% | 799.2 | 757.64 | 12.46% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 41 | 778.42 | 23.48 | 3.02% | 801.9 | 754.94 | 12.85% |
| 11/27/26 (Fri) | 48 | 778.42 | 25.3 | 3.25% | 803.72 | 753.12 | 12.81% |
| 11/30/26 (Mon) | 51 | 778.42 | 25.82 | 3.32% | 804.24 | 752.6 | 12.7% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 69 | 778.42 | 32.12 | 4.13% | 810.54 | 746.3 | 13.52% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 82 | 778.42 | 34.75 | 4.46% | 813.17 | 743.67 | 13.6% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 97 | 778.42 | 38.5 | 4.95% | 816.92 | 739.92 | 13.84% |
| 01/29/27 (Fri) | 111 | 778.42 | 42.55 | 5.47% | 820.97 | 735.87 | 14.23% |
| 02/26/27 (Fri) | 139 | 778.42 | 49.43 | 6.35% | 827.85 | 728.99 | 14.7% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 160 | 778.42 | 53.77 | 6.91% | 832.19 | 724.65 | 14.93% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 172 | 778.42 | 55.61 | 7.14% | 834.03 | 722.81 | 15.02% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 250 | 778.42 | 72.84 | 9.36% | 851.26 | 705.58 | 16.18% |
| 06/30/27 (Wed) | 263 | 778.42 | 75.23 | 9.66% | 853.65 | 703.19 | 16.39% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 342 | 778.42 | 91.06 | 11.7% | 869.48 | 687.36 | 17.28% |
| 09/30/27 (Thu) | 355 | 778.42 | 92.6 | 11.9% | 871.02 | 685.82 | 17.29% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 433 | 778.42 | 104.45 | 13.42% | 882.87 | 673.97 | 17.57% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 468 | 778.42 | 109.87 | 14.11% | 888.29 | 668.55 | 17.81% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 615 | 778.42 | 131.23 | 16.86% | 909.65 | 647.19 | 18.5% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 797 | 778.42 | 155.19 | 19.94% | 933.61 | 623.23 | 19.3% |
| 01/19/29 (Fri) | 832 | 778.42 | 157.22 | 20.2% | 935.64 | 621.2 | 19.15% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.