Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/26 (Mon) | 0 | 773.26 | 3.43 | 0.44% | 776.69 | 769.83 | 1.0% |
| 08/11/26 (Tue) | 1 | 773.26 | 4.64 | 0.6% | 777.9 | 768.62 | 8.42% |
| 08/12/26 (Wed) | 2 | 773.26 | 5.98 | 0.77% | 779.24 | 767.28 | 9.71% |
| 08/13/26 (Thu) | 3 | 773.26 | 6.91 | 0.89% | 780.17 | 766.35 | 10.24% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 4 | 773.26 | 7.81 | 1.01% | 781.07 | 765.45 | 10.66% |
| 08/17/26 (Mon) | 7 | 773.26 | 8.77 | 1.13% | 782.03 | 764.49 | 10.06% |
| 08/18/26 (Tue) | 8 | 773.26 | 9.41 | 1.22% | 782.67 | 763.85 | 10.29% |
| 08/19/26 (Wed) | 9 | 773.26 | 10.08 | 1.3% | 783.34 | 763.18 | 10.54% |
| 08/20/26 (Thu) | 10 | 773.26 | 10.72 | 1.39% | 783.98 | 762.54 | 10.78% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 11 | 773.26 | 11.44 | 1.48% | 784.7 | 761.82 | 11.03% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 18 | 773.26 | 15.27 | 1.98% | 788.53 | 757.99 | 12.01% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 21 | 773.26 | 16.05 | 2.08% | 789.31 | 757.21 | 11.83% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 25 | 773.26 | 18.37 | 2.38% | 791.63 | 754.89 | 12.45% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 32 | 773.26 | 20.8 | 2.69% | 794.06 | 752.46 | 12.61% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 39 | 773.26 | 23.78 | 3.08% | 797.04 | 749.48 | 13.0% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 46 | 773.26 | 25.84 | 3.34% | 799.1 | 747.42 | 13.27% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 51 | 773.26 | 27.19 | 3.52% | 800.45 | 746.07 | 13.36% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 67 | 773.26 | 32.87 | 4.25% | 806.13 | 740.39 | 14.22% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 81 | 773.26 | 36.92 | 4.78% | 810.18 | 736.34 | 14.45% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 102 | 773.26 | 42.52 | 5.5% | 815.78 | 730.74 | 14.85% |
| 11/30/26 (Mon) | 112 | 773.26 | 44.76 | 5.79% | 818.02 | 728.5 | 14.92% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 130 | 773.26 | 49.36 | 6.38% | 822.62 | 723.9 | 15.27% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 143 | 773.26 | 51.58 | 6.67% | 824.84 | 721.68 | 15.37% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 158 | 773.26 | 55.06 | 7.12% | 828.32 | 718.2 | 15.58% |
| 01/29/27 (Fri) | 172 | 773.26 | 58.99 | 7.63% | 832.25 | 714.27 | 15.94% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 221 | 773.26 | 69.39 | 8.97% | 842.65 | 703.87 | 16.54% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 233 | 773.26 | 70.53 | 9.12% | 843.79 | 702.73 | 16.48% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 311 | 773.26 | 86.97 | 11.25% | 860.23 | 686.29 | 17.53% |
| 06/30/27 (Wed) | 324 | 773.26 | 87.92 | 11.37% | 861.18 | 685.34 | 17.43% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 403 | 773.26 | 102.42 | 13.24% | 875.68 | 670.84 | 18.14% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 494 | 773.26 | 116.83 | 15.11% | 890.09 | 656.43 | 18.71% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 529 | 773.26 | 120.9 | 15.64% | 894.16 | 652.36 | 18.75% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 676 | 773.26 | 141.15 | 18.25% | 914.41 | 632.11 | 19.36% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 858 | 773.26 | 163.25 | 21.11% | 936.51 | 610.01 | 19.82% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.