Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 0 | 215.77 | 1.41 | 0.65% | 217.18 | 214.36 | 1.0% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 4 | 215.77 | 3.92 | 1.82% | 219.69 | 211.85 | 24.64% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 5 | 215.77 | 5.16 | 2.39% | 220.93 | 210.61 | 29.34% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 7 | 215.77 | 6.95 | 3.22% | 222.72 | 208.82 | 33.65% |
| 06/01/26 (Mon) | 10 | 215.77 | 8.07 | 3.74% | 223.84 | 207.7 | 32.91% |
| 06/03/26 (Wed) | 12 | 215.77 | 9.35 | 4.33% | 225.12 | 206.42 | 34.89% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 14 | 215.77 | 10.54 | 4.88% | 226.31 | 205.23 | 36.38% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 21 | 215.77 | 12.86 | 5.96% | 228.63 | 202.91 | 36.37% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 27 | 215.77 | 14.58 | 6.76% | 230.35 | 201.19 | 36.39% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 35 | 215.77 | 16.68 | 7.73% | 232.45 | 199.09 | 36.62% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 41 | 215.77 | 18.3 | 8.48% | 234.07 | 197.47 | 37.12% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 56 | 215.77 | 21.55 | 9.99% | 237.32 | 194.22 | 37.45% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 91 | 215.77 | 28.67 | 13.29% | 244.44 | 187.1 | 39.14% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 119 | 215.77 | 34.68 | 16.07% | 250.45 | 181.09 | 41.61% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 147 | 215.77 | 38.63 | 17.9% | 254.4 | 177.14 | 41.68% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 182 | 215.77 | 44.28 | 20.52% | 260.06 | 171.49 | 42.97% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 210 | 215.77 | 47.34 | 21.94% | 263.12 | 168.43 | 42.88% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 238 | 215.77 | 50.38 | 23.35% | 266.15 | 165.39 | 42.94% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 301 | 215.77 | 57.16 | 26.49% | 272.93 | 158.61 | 43.51% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 391 | 215.77 | 65.51 | 30.36% | 281.28 | 150.26 | 43.97% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 483 | 215.77 | 73.14 | 33.9% | 288.91 | 142.63 | 44.38% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 574 | 215.77 | 79.92 | 37.04% | 295.69 | 135.85 | 44.7% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 609 | 215.77 | 82.66 | 38.31% | 298.43 | 133.11 | 44.93% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 756 | 215.77 | 91.38 | 42.35% | 307.14 | 124.4 | 45.02% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 938 | 215.77 | 101.09 | 46.85% | 316.86 | 114.68 | 45.23% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.