Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 (Mon) | 3 | 177.15 | 2.77 | 1.56% | 179.92 | 174.38 | 21.87% |
| 04/08/26 (Wed) | 5 | 177.15 | 4.22 | 2.38% | 181.37 | 172.93 | 27.23% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 7 | 177.15 | 5.25 | 2.96% | 182.4 | 171.9 | 29.32% |
| 04/13/26 (Mon) | 10 | 177.15 | 6.41 | 3.62% | 183.56 | 170.74 | 29.75% |
| 04/15/26 (Wed) | 12 | 177.15 | 7.37 | 4.16% | 184.52 | 169.78 | 31.62% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 14 | 177.15 | 7.71 | 4.35% | 184.86 | 169.44 | 31.59% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 21 | 177.15 | 9.99 | 5.64% | 187.14 | 167.16 | 33.36% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 28 | 177.15 | 11.98 | 6.77% | 189.13 | 165.17 | 35.02% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 35 | 177.15 | 13.43 | 7.58% | 190.58 | 163.72 | 35.3% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 42 | 177.15 | 14.92 | 8.42% | 192.07 | 162.23 | 35.94% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 76 | 177.15 | 22.29 | 12.58% | 199.44 | 154.86 | 40.33% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 105 | 177.15 | 26.01 | 14.68% | 203.16 | 151.14 | 40.2% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 140 | 177.15 | 30.52 | 17.23% | 207.67 | 146.63 | 40.96% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 168 | 177.15 | 34.06 | 19.23% | 211.21 | 143.09 | 41.84% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 196 | 177.15 | 36.87 | 20.81% | 214.02 | 140.28 | 42.0% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 231 | 177.15 | 40.95 | 23.12% | 218.1 | 136.2 | 43.05% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 259 | 177.15 | 43.2 | 24.39% | 220.35 | 133.95 | 42.82% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 287 | 177.15 | 45.41 | 25.63% | 222.56 | 131.74 | 42.92% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 350 | 177.15 | 51.0 | 28.79% | 228.15 | 126.15 | 43.81% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 440 | 177.15 | 57.35 | 32.38% | 234.5 | 119.8 | 44.1% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 623 | 177.15 | 69.32 | 39.13% | 246.47 | 107.83 | 45.19% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 658 | 177.15 | 70.59 | 39.85% | 247.74 | 106.56 | 44.82% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 805 | 177.15 | 78.92 | 44.55% | 256.07 | 98.23 | 45.65% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 987 | 177.15 | 85.91 | 48.5% | 263.06 | 91.24 | 45.25% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.