Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/26 (Mon) | 0 | 223.96 | 3.39 | 1.51% | 227.35 | 220.57 | 23.82% |
| 08/12/26 (Wed) | 2 | 223.96 | 5.6 | 2.5% | 229.56 | 218.36 | 31.01% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 4 | 223.96 | 6.97 | 3.11% | 230.93 | 216.99 | 32.78% |
| 08/17/26 (Mon) | 7 | 223.96 | 7.82 | 3.49% | 231.78 | 216.14 | 30.96% |
| 08/19/26 (Wed) | 9 | 223.96 | 9.09 | 4.06% | 233.06 | 214.87 | 32.66% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 11 | 223.96 | 10.16 | 4.54% | 234.12 | 213.8 | 33.84% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 18 | 223.96 | 14.98 | 6.69% | 238.94 | 208.98 | 40.81% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 25 | 223.96 | 16.98 | 7.58% | 240.94 | 206.98 | 40.06% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 32 | 223.96 | 18.36 | 8.2% | 242.32 | 205.6 | 38.98% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 39 | 223.96 | 20.02 | 8.94% | 243.98 | 203.94 | 38.82% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 46 | 223.96 | 21.65 | 9.67% | 245.61 | 202.31 | 38.77% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 67 | 223.96 | 25.93 | 11.58% | 249.89 | 198.03 | 38.89% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 102 | 223.96 | 33.26 | 14.85% | 257.22 | 190.7 | 40.77% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 130 | 223.96 | 37.04 | 16.54% | 261.0 | 186.92 | 40.52% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 158 | 223.96 | 40.71 | 18.18% | 264.68 | 183.25 | 40.42% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 193 | 223.96 | 44.92 | 20.06% | 268.88 | 179.04 | 40.42% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 221 | 223.96 | 49.05 | 21.9% | 273.0 | 174.92 | 41.44% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 311 | 223.96 | 58.35 | 26.05% | 282.31 | 165.61 | 41.82% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 403 | 223.96 | 66.58 | 29.73% | 290.54 | 157.38 | 42.15% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 494 | 223.96 | 73.72 | 32.91% | 297.68 | 150.24 | 42.37% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 529 | 223.96 | 75.76 | 33.83% | 299.72 | 148.2 | 42.12% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 676 | 223.96 | 86.06 | 38.43% | 310.02 | 137.9 | 42.74% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 858 | 223.96 | 96.67 | 43.16% | 320.63 | 127.29 | 43.07% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.