Options Analytics

Expected Move

Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA

Expiration Date DTE Price~ Expected Move Expected Move% Upper Bound Lower Bound Implied Volatility
10/14/26 (Wed) 4 229.35 4.93 2.15% 234.28 224.42 26.9%
10/16/26 (Fri) 6 229.35 6.29 2.74% 235.64 223.06 29.07%
10/19/26 (Mon) 9 229.35 6.91 3.01% 236.26 222.44 26.75%
10/21/26 (Wed) 11 229.35 7.9 3.45% 237.25 221.44 27.86%
10/23/26 (Fri) 13 229.35 8.84 3.85% 238.19 220.51 28.8%
10/30/26 (Fri) 20 229.35 11.13 4.86% 240.48 218.22 29.62%
11/06/26 (Fri) 27 229.35 12.92 5.63% 242.27 216.43 29.81%
11/13/26 (Fri) 34 229.35 14.56 6.35% 243.91 214.79 30.01%
11/20/26 (Fri) 41 229.35 18.59 8.11% 247.94 210.76 34.98%
11/27/26 (Fri) 48 229.35 19.55 8.52% 248.9 209.8 34.13%
12/18/26 (Fri) 69 229.35 23.48 10.24% 252.83 205.87 34.34%
01/15/27 (Fri) 97 229.35 27.77 12.11% 257.12 201.58 34.29%
02/19/27 (Fri) 132 229.35 32.34 14.1% 261.69 197.01 34.27%
03/19/27 (Fri) 160 229.35 37.21 16.22% 266.56 192.14 35.99%
04/16/27 (Fri) 188 229.35 40.27 17.56% 269.62 189.08 35.91%
05/21/27 (Fri) 223 229.35 44.33 19.33% 273.68 185.02 36.31%
06/17/27 (Thu) 250 229.35 47.58 20.75% 276.93 181.77 36.92%
09/17/27 (Fri) 342 229.35 56.33 24.56% 285.68 173.02 37.52%
12/17/27 (Fri) 433 229.35 63.98 27.9% 293.33 165.37 38.03%
01/21/28 (Fri) 468 229.35 66.43 28.96% 295.78 162.92 37.95%
06/16/28 (Fri) 615 229.35 76.8 33.48% 306.15 152.55 38.59%
12/15/28 (Fri) 797 229.35 87.76 38.27% 317.11 141.59 39.09%
01/19/29 (Fri) 832 229.35 89.06 38.83% 318.41 140.29 38.8%

Understanding Expected Move

What is the Expected Move?

The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.

How to interpret the outputs

The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.

Practical applications

  • Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
  • Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
  • Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
  • Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.