Options Analytics

Expected Move

Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY

Expiration Date DTE Price~ Expected Move Expected Move% Upper Bound Lower Bound Implied Volatility
05/22/26 (Fri) 0 746.89 1.37 0.18% 748.26 745.53 1.0%
05/26/26 (Tue) 4 746.89 5.11 0.68% 752.0 741.79 9.48%
05/27/26 (Wed) 5 746.89 6.25 0.84% 753.14 740.65 10.39%
05/28/26 (Thu) 6 746.89 7.36 0.98% 754.25 739.54 11.19%
05/29/26 (Fri) 7 746.89 8.56 1.15% 755.45 738.34 11.96%
06/01/26 (Mon) 10 746.89 9.69 1.3% 756.59 737.2 11.43%
06/02/26 (Tue) 11 746.89 10.42 1.39% 757.31 736.48 11.71%
06/03/26 (Wed) 12 746.89 11.24 1.5% 758.13 735.66 12.1%
06/04/26 (Thu) 13 746.89 11.98 1.6% 758.88 734.91 12.39%
06/05/26 (Fri) 14 746.89 12.92 1.73% 759.81 733.98 12.8%
06/12/26 (Fri) 21 746.89 16.67 2.23% 763.56 730.23 13.51%
06/18/26 (Thu) 27 746.89 19.75 2.64% 766.64 727.15 13.85%
06/26/26 (Fri) 35 746.89 22.36 2.99% 769.26 724.53 14.06%
06/30/26 (Tue) 39 746.89 23.46 3.14% 770.36 723.43 14.05%
07/02/26 (Thu) 41 746.89 24.63 3.3% 771.52 722.27 14.34%
07/17/26 (Fri) 56 746.89 29.57 3.96% 776.46 717.33 14.71%
07/31/26 (Fri) 70 746.89 34.07 4.56% 780.97 712.82 15.14%
08/21/26 (Fri) 91 746.89 39.93 5.35% 786.82 706.97 15.52%
08/31/26 (Mon) 101 746.89 42.75 5.72% 789.65 704.14 15.76%
09/18/26 (Fri) 119 746.89 47.58 6.37% 794.47 699.32 16.12%
09/30/26 (Wed) 131 746.89 49.83 6.67% 796.72 697.07 16.23%
10/16/26 (Fri) 147 746.89 53.82 7.21% 800.71 693.08 16.54%
10/30/26 (Fri) 161 746.89 56.99 7.63% 803.89 689.9 16.7%
11/20/26 (Fri) 182 746.89 62.11 8.32% 809.0 684.79 17.07%
12/18/26 (Fri) 210 746.89 67.89 9.09% 814.78 679.01 17.35%
12/31/26 (Thu) 223 746.89 69.7 9.33% 816.6 677.19 17.39%
01/15/27 (Fri) 238 746.89 72.46 9.7% 819.35 674.44 17.46%
03/19/27 (Fri) 301 746.89 84.84 11.36% 831.74 662.05 18.13%
03/31/27 (Wed) 313 746.89 85.71 11.47% 832.6 661.19 18.04%
06/17/27 (Thu) 391 746.89 99.57 13.33% 846.47 647.32 18.68%
09/17/27 (Fri) 483 746.89 112.65 15.08% 859.55 634.24 19.01%
12/17/27 (Fri) 574 746.89 124.35 16.65% 871.25 622.54 19.25%
01/21/28 (Fri) 609 746.89 129.07 17.28% 875.96 617.83 19.47%
06/16/28 (Fri) 756 746.89 146.25 19.58% 893.15 600.64 19.79%
12/15/28 (Fri) 938 746.89 165.49 22.16% 912.38 581.41 19.98%

Understanding Expected Move

What is the Expected Move?

The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.

How to interpret the outputs

The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.

Practical applications

  • Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
  • Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
  • Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
  • Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.