Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 (Mon) | 3 | 655.68 | 8.02 | 1.22% | 663.71 | 647.66 | 16.96% |
| 04/07/26 (Tue) | 4 | 655.68 | 9.72 | 1.48% | 665.41 | 645.96 | 18.45% |
| 04/08/26 (Wed) | 5 | 655.68 | 11.11 | 1.69% | 666.79 | 644.58 | 19.28% |
| 04/09/26 (Thu) | 6 | 655.68 | 12.36 | 1.88% | 668.04 | 643.33 | 19.92% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 7 | 655.68 | 13.72 | 2.09% | 669.41 | 641.96 | 20.65% |
| 04/13/26 (Mon) | 10 | 655.68 | 15.46 | 2.36% | 671.15 | 640.22 | 19.93% |
| 04/14/26 (Tue) | 11 | 655.68 | 16.34 | 2.49% | 672.02 | 639.35 | 20.16% |
| 04/15/26 (Wed) | 12 | 655.68 | 17.3 | 2.64% | 672.99 | 638.38 | 20.57% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 14 | 655.68 | 18.78 | 2.86% | 674.47 | 636.9 | 20.71% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 21 | 655.68 | 22.61 | 3.45% | 678.29 | 633.07 | 20.6% |
| 04/30/26 (Thu) | 27 | 655.68 | 25.48 | 3.89% | 681.16 | 630.21 | 20.62% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 28 | 655.68 | 26.13 | 3.99% | 681.82 | 629.55 | 20.74% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 35 | 655.68 | 28.91 | 4.41% | 684.59 | 626.78 | 20.58% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 42 | 655.68 | 31.48 | 4.8% | 687.17 | 624.2 | 20.52% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 56 | 655.68 | 35.84 | 5.47% | 691.53 | 619.84 | 20.27% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 76 | 655.68 | 41.96 | 6.4% | 697.65 | 613.72 | 20.35% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 88 | 655.68 | 44.03 | 6.71% | 699.71 | 611.66 | 20.0% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 105 | 655.68 | 48.72 | 7.43% | 704.41 | 606.96 | 20.29% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 119 | 655.68 | 52.04 | 7.94% | 707.72 | 603.65 | 20.32% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 140 | 655.68 | 57.13 | 8.71% | 712.82 | 598.55 | 20.55% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 150 | 655.68 | 59.53 | 9.08% | 715.21 | 596.16 | 20.69% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 168 | 655.68 | 62.92 | 9.6% | 718.6 | 592.77 | 20.63% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 259 | 655.68 | 79.16 | 12.07% | 734.85 | 576.52 | 20.99% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 272 | 655.68 | 80.54 | 12.28% | 736.23 | 575.14 | 20.93% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 287 | 655.68 | 82.73 | 12.62% | 738.42 | 572.95 | 20.93% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 350 | 655.68 | 92.16 | 14.06% | 747.84 | 563.53 | 21.09% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 440 | 655.68 | 103.81 | 15.83% | 759.49 | 551.88 | 21.23% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 623 | 655.68 | 122.17 | 18.63% | 777.86 | 533.51 | 21.07% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 658 | 655.68 | 124.86 | 19.04% | 780.55 | 530.82 | 21.02% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 987 | 655.68 | 156.02 | 23.79% | 811.7 | 499.67 | 21.45% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.