Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/26 (Mon) | 0 | 722.4 | 5.53 | 0.77% | 727.93 | 716.87 | 12.35% |
| 08/11/26 (Tue) | 1 | 722.4 | 7.5 | 1.04% | 729.9 | 714.9 | 14.52% |
| 08/12/26 (Wed) | 2 | 722.4 | 9.52 | 1.32% | 731.92 | 712.88 | 16.49% |
| 08/13/26 (Thu) | 3 | 722.4 | 11.03 | 1.53% | 733.43 | 711.37 | 17.5% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 4 | 722.4 | 12.3 | 1.7% | 734.7 | 710.1 | 17.97% |
| 08/17/26 (Mon) | 7 | 722.4 | 13.88 | 1.92% | 736.28 | 708.52 | 17.02% |
| 08/18/26 (Tue) | 8 | 722.4 | 14.92 | 2.06% | 737.32 | 707.48 | 17.46% |
| 08/19/26 (Wed) | 9 | 722.4 | 15.93 | 2.21% | 738.33 | 706.47 | 17.84% |
| 08/20/26 (Thu) | 10 | 722.4 | 16.87 | 2.34% | 739.27 | 705.53 | 18.16% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 11 | 722.4 | 17.94 | 2.48% | 740.34 | 704.46 | 18.55% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 18 | 722.4 | 23.63 | 3.27% | 746.03 | 698.77 | 19.95% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 21 | 722.4 | 24.66 | 3.41% | 747.06 | 697.74 | 19.53% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 25 | 722.4 | 27.89 | 3.86% | 750.29 | 694.51 | 20.38% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 32 | 722.4 | 30.94 | 4.28% | 753.34 | 691.46 | 20.25% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 39 | 722.4 | 34.59 | 4.79% | 756.99 | 687.81 | 20.65% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 46 | 722.4 | 37.6 | 5.21% | 760.0 | 684.8 | 20.87% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 51 | 722.4 | 39.35 | 5.45% | 761.75 | 683.04 | 20.82% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 67 | 722.4 | 46.41 | 6.42% | 768.81 | 675.99 | 21.5% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 81 | 722.4 | 51.93 | 7.19% | 774.33 | 670.47 | 21.92% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 102 | 722.4 | 60.0 | 8.31% | 782.4 | 662.4 | 22.62% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 130 | 722.4 | 68.72 | 9.51% | 791.12 | 653.68 | 23.0% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 143 | 722.4 | 71.99 | 9.97% | 794.39 | 650.4 | 23.06% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 158 | 722.4 | 76.19 | 10.55% | 798.59 | 646.21 | 23.22% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 193 | 722.4 | 85.45 | 11.83% | 807.85 | 636.95 | 23.57% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 221 | 722.4 | 93.4 | 12.93% | 815.8 | 629.0 | 24.07% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 233 | 722.4 | 95.22 | 13.18% | 817.62 | 627.18 | 23.99% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 311 | 722.4 | 114.16 | 15.8% | 836.56 | 608.24 | 24.86% |
| 06/30/27 (Wed) | 324 | 722.4 | 116.08 | 16.07% | 838.48 | 606.32 | 24.86% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 403 | 722.4 | 131.28 | 18.17% | 853.68 | 591.12 | 25.16% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 494 | 722.4 | 146.49 | 20.28% | 868.89 | 575.91 | 25.39% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 529 | 722.4 | 151.28 | 20.94% | 873.68 | 571.12 | 25.41% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 676 | 722.4 | 173.4 | 24.0% | 895.8 | 549.0 | 25.9% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 858 | 722.4 | 196.24 | 27.17% | 918.64 | 526.16 | 25.99% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.