Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/13/26 (Tue) | 3 | 751.33 | 5.87 | 0.78% | 757.2 | 745.45 | 10.96% |
| 10/14/26 (Wed) | 4 | 751.33 | 8.02 | 1.07% | 759.34 | 743.31 | 13.38% |
| 10/15/26 (Thu) | 5 | 751.33 | 9.26 | 1.23% | 760.59 | 742.06 | 14.12% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 6 | 751.33 | 10.55 | 1.4% | 761.87 | 740.78 | 14.83% |
| 10/19/26 (Mon) | 9 | 751.33 | 11.77 | 1.57% | 763.1 | 739.55 | 13.91% |
| 10/20/26 (Tue) | 10 | 751.33 | 12.67 | 1.69% | 763.99 | 738.66 | 14.27% |
| 10/21/26 (Wed) | 11 | 751.33 | 13.67 | 1.82% | 764.99 | 737.66 | 14.74% |
| 10/22/26 (Thu) | 12 | 751.33 | 14.49 | 1.93% | 765.81 | 736.84 | 15.01% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 13 | 751.33 | 15.44 | 2.05% | 766.76 | 735.89 | 15.35% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 20 | 751.33 | 21.16 | 2.82% | 772.49 | 730.16 | 17.18% |
| 11/06/26 (Fri) | 27 | 751.33 | 25.63 | 3.41% | 776.96 | 725.69 | 18.0% |
| 11/13/26 (Fri) | 34 | 751.33 | 28.95 | 3.85% | 780.28 | 722.37 | 18.2% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 41 | 751.33 | 32.3 | 4.3% | 783.63 | 719.02 | 18.54% |
| 11/27/26 (Fri) | 48 | 751.33 | 34.79 | 4.63% | 786.12 | 716.53 | 18.46% |
| 11/30/26 (Mon) | 51 | 751.33 | 35.47 | 4.72% | 786.8 | 715.85 | 18.3% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 69 | 751.33 | 43.76 | 5.82% | 795.09 | 707.56 | 19.4% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 82 | 751.33 | 47.34 | 6.3% | 798.67 | 703.98 | 19.34% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 97 | 751.33 | 52.54 | 6.99% | 803.87 | 698.78 | 19.68% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 132 | 751.33 | 63.01 | 8.39% | 814.34 | 688.31 | 20.22% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 160 | 751.33 | 71.36 | 9.5% | 822.69 | 679.96 | 20.79% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 172 | 751.33 | 73.79 | 9.82% | 825.12 | 677.53 | 20.8% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 250 | 751.33 | 94.03 | 12.51% | 845.35 | 657.3 | 21.88% |
| 06/30/27 (Wed) | 263 | 751.33 | 96.45 | 12.84% | 847.77 | 654.88 | 21.96% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 342 | 751.33 | 113.54 | 15.11% | 864.86 | 637.79 | 22.58% |
| 09/30/27 (Thu) | 355 | 751.33 | 114.29 | 15.21% | 865.61 | 637.04 | 22.38% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 433 | 751.33 | 130.1 | 17.32% | 881.43 | 621.22 | 22.99% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 468 | 751.33 | 135.02 | 17.97% | 886.35 | 616.3 | 22.99% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 615 | 751.33 | 158.1 | 21.04% | 909.43 | 593.23 | 23.44% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 797 | 751.33 | 182.11 | 24.24% | 933.44 | 569.21 | 23.72% |
| 01/19/29 (Fri) | 832 | 751.33 | 185.72 | 24.72% | 937.05 | 565.6 | 23.71% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.