Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 0 | 717.68 | 1.42 | 0.2% | 719.11 | 716.26 | 1.0% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 4 | 717.68 | 7.1 | 0.99% | 724.78 | 710.59 | 13.77% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 5 | 717.68 | 9.05 | 1.26% | 726.74 | 708.63 | 15.75% |
| 05/28/26 (Thu) | 6 | 717.68 | 10.81 | 1.51% | 728.49 | 706.88 | 17.18% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 7 | 717.68 | 12.56 | 1.75% | 730.24 | 705.13 | 18.43% |
| 06/01/26 (Mon) | 10 | 717.68 | 14.24 | 1.98% | 731.93 | 703.44 | 17.57% |
| 06/02/26 (Tue) | 11 | 717.68 | 15.35 | 2.14% | 733.04 | 702.33 | 18.05% |
| 06/03/26 (Wed) | 12 | 717.68 | 16.49 | 2.3% | 734.18 | 701.19 | 18.56% |
| 06/04/26 (Thu) | 13 | 717.68 | 17.59 | 2.45% | 735.28 | 700.09 | 19.02% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 14 | 717.68 | 18.8 | 2.62% | 736.49 | 698.88 | 19.55% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 21 | 717.68 | 23.82 | 3.32% | 741.51 | 693.86 | 20.21% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 27 | 717.68 | 27.47 | 3.83% | 745.15 | 690.22 | 20.55% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 35 | 717.68 | 31.17 | 4.34% | 748.85 | 686.52 | 20.57% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 39 | 717.68 | 32.63 | 4.55% | 750.32 | 685.05 | 20.43% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 41 | 717.68 | 34.06 | 4.75% | 751.75 | 683.62 | 20.75% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 56 | 717.68 | 40.23 | 5.61% | 757.92 | 677.45 | 20.95% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 70 | 717.68 | 46.1 | 6.42% | 763.78 | 671.59 | 21.45% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 91 | 717.68 | 53.22 | 7.42% | 770.9 | 664.47 | 21.7% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 119 | 717.68 | 62.13 | 8.66% | 779.82 | 655.55 | 22.13% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 131 | 717.68 | 65.14 | 9.08% | 782.82 | 652.55 | 22.2% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 147 | 717.68 | 70.04 | 9.76% | 787.72 | 647.64 | 22.49% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 210 | 717.68 | 86.39 | 12.04% | 804.07 | 631.3 | 23.16% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 223 | 717.68 | 89.06 | 12.41% | 806.74 | 628.63 | 23.24% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 238 | 717.68 | 92.29 | 12.86% | 809.98 | 625.39 | 23.28% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 301 | 717.68 | 105.15 | 14.65% | 822.83 | 612.54 | 23.54% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 313 | 717.68 | 107.21 | 14.94% | 824.9 | 610.47 | 23.62% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 391 | 717.68 | 122.43 | 17.06% | 840.11 | 595.26 | 24.05% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 483 | 717.68 | 136.59 | 19.03% | 854.28 | 581.09 | 24.15% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 574 | 717.68 | 149.84 | 20.88% | 867.53 | 567.84 | 24.3% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 609 | 717.68 | 154.19 | 21.48% | 871.87 | 563.5 | 24.33% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 756 | 717.68 | 172.53 | 24.04% | 890.22 | 545.15 | 24.4% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 938 | 717.68 | 194.3 | 27.07% | 911.98 | 523.39 | 24.7% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.