Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 (Mon) | 3 | 584.76 | 7.59 | 1.3% | 592.36 | 577.17 | 18.18% |
| 04/07/26 (Tue) | 4 | 584.76 | 9.37 | 1.6% | 594.13 | 575.4 | 20.06% |
| 04/08/26 (Wed) | 5 | 584.76 | 10.74 | 1.84% | 595.5 | 574.03 | 21.0% |
| 04/09/26 (Thu) | 6 | 584.76 | 11.96 | 2.05% | 596.72 | 572.81 | 21.65% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 7 | 584.76 | 13.29 | 2.27% | 598.05 | 571.48 | 22.46% |
| 04/13/26 (Mon) | 10 | 584.76 | 15.13 | 2.59% | 599.9 | 569.63 | 21.89% |
| 04/14/26 (Tue) | 11 | 584.76 | 16.09 | 2.75% | 600.85 | 568.68 | 22.27% |
| 04/15/26 (Wed) | 12 | 584.76 | 17.01 | 2.91% | 601.78 | 567.75 | 22.62% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 14 | 584.76 | 18.86 | 3.22% | 603.62 | 565.91 | 23.33% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 21 | 584.76 | 23.09 | 3.95% | 607.86 | 561.67 | 23.54% |
| 04/30/26 (Thu) | 27 | 584.76 | 26.43 | 4.52% | 611.2 | 558.33 | 23.96% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 28 | 584.76 | 27.09 | 4.63% | 611.86 | 557.67 | 24.08% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 35 | 584.76 | 30.08 | 5.14% | 614.85 | 554.68 | 24.02% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 42 | 584.76 | 32.87 | 5.62% | 617.64 | 551.89 | 24.0% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 56 | 584.76 | 37.45 | 6.4% | 622.22 | 547.31 | 23.75% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 76 | 584.76 | 45.1 | 7.71% | 629.87 | 539.66 | 24.5% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 88 | 584.76 | 46.35 | 7.93% | 631.12 | 538.41 | 23.61% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 140 | 584.76 | 60.24 | 10.3% | 645.0 | 524.53 | 24.29% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 168 | 584.76 | 66.29 | 11.34% | 651.05 | 518.48 | 24.39% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 180 | 584.76 | 68.74 | 11.76% | 653.5 | 516.03 | 24.55% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 259 | 584.76 | 84.02 | 14.37% | 668.79 | 500.74 | 24.93% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 272 | 584.76 | 85.4 | 14.6% | 670.16 | 499.37 | 24.82% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 287 | 584.76 | 88.0 | 15.05% | 672.77 | 496.76 | 24.89% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 350 | 584.76 | 97.57 | 16.69% | 682.34 | 487.19 | 24.95% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 532 | 584.76 | 120.78 | 20.65% | 705.55 | 463.98 | 25.12% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.